Before he returned to politics, won a national election and became the first would-be chancellor in modern German history to fail to win the job on the first ballot in Parliament, Friedrich Merz accepted an invitation to a gathering of the French Foreign Legion in Corsica.

At the last moment, the organizers asked him to arrive on the parade ground not by road or rail, but by parachute. Mr. Merz, then a corporate lawyer, had never jumped out of a plane. But a fellow attendee recalled recently that Mr. Merz did not hesitate. He made the jump — successfully, but with a bit of a rough landing.

It is not yet clear if Mr. Merz’s rough landing in his bid for the chancellery is a stumble, or something more dire. He still appears likely to become Germany’s next leader, at a pivotal time for the nation’s economy, security and role in Europe.